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20140206外汇市场重要的数据公布

本周的星期四和星期五将有重要的数据公布,如今天早上澳洲东部时间1130的澳洲零售业数据,晚上11-11.45的英国和欧盟的利息政策,7 O0 U2 o: Y+ u
最重要的有周6凌晨美国的非农工业数据。一系列消息可能将对金融市场造成较大波动,
' E/ \, i! @. f8 O7 Y- k" q尤其是AUD EUR,GBPUSDGold等,
- P* n/ O! ~2 X0 @6 O; N请大家密切关注。( h( W/ x2 C0 a$ z' e

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黄金方面(XAU/USD),以上的事件将决定基本面的走势,像是欧盟有没有可能再次降息,美国的非农数据的好坏等等。市场预测上一月份美国增长了18.4万个工作,失业率保持在6.7%。较差的数据可能导致美金贬值,促使黄金进一步上涨。技术面方面,黄金过去一个月一直在$1230-1278的区间波动。但周图和日图上,
% {4 W& ]% f" `5 T似乎有冲破下行趋势的信号(break out of the downtrend),6 c# H9 u( W; n4 g  l
如果在消息的刺激下致使黄金冲破$1280, 进一步上涨的趋势将非常明显,有望冲破$1300,甚至在未来探测$1340左右。黄金底部的支撑则是在$1180附近。

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Exactly one month ago, we took a technical look at the weekly chart of gold and discussed why it looked primed for a bounce toward the upper-$1200s (see below for more). As anticipated, the yellow metal bounced higher over the last four weeks, and prices are now trading at another “make-or-break” technical level for the next couple of weeks.! Y3 f; ^. q( \8 p

5 R; o9 i: S) u6 p4 uAs the chart below shows, gold has been stalling out against the initial 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the Q3-Q4 2013 drop at 1280 for the last 3 weeks; the 14-month bearish trend line also comes in around this level. Bolstering the bearish case, the metal carved out a Dark Cloud Cover* candlestick pattern last week, showing a shift from buying to selling pressure and potentially marking a near-term top.* w/ O+ H" J. q/ T1 c7 N
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Despite all these bearish technical signs though, gold is holding up relatively well this week. As my colleague Fawad Razaqzada noted earlier this week, speculators have now increased their bullish positioning on gold for five consecutive weeks, indicating growing optimism in spite of the longer-term downtrend. This is also reflected in the MACD indicator, which has crossed above its signal line and is trending modestly higher.
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& @) c2 l9 s* _/ L* v- |With the market indecisive right now, the economic data over the rest of this week will be critical. First, tomorrow’s European Central Bank decision could have an unusually large impact on gold. If the ECB takes some sort of easing measure (a step that we believe is unlikely), gold could extend the week’s bounce, as some traders may see the yellow metal as an “alternative currency” with more limited supply. Similarly, a weaker-than-expected Non-Farm Payroll report on Friday (stay tuned for our full preview tomorrow) could also spur gold higher as it would indicate the potential for a slower taper by the Fed.7 h; i' D; F9 @# p- u* O

: x1 L/ r. {# I0 a1 ]' M2 k0 x+ _* JTechnically speaking, gold will have to break and close above 1280 (the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement to turn the bias bullish for a possible run up to $1300 or $1337 (the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement) next. Meanwhile, if this week’s economic data does not lend any support to gold, the technicals point to a pullback toward $1200 or $1180 (previous support at YTD lows) later this month.
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Gold: Technical Signs Suggest Possible Bounce this Week
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% j, p( Y) }3 N; a0 h/ p1 N2 _. q# qGold had a horrendous year in 2013, clocking in with a dismal -28% return as traders grew more confident in global economic growth and the Federal Reserve began to taper its QE program. As we flip the calendars to the first full trading week of 2014 though, gold is showing near-term technical signs of bouncing off its 3.5-year low at 1180.- _8 x8 Y4 H% ?+ l; V9 b
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Last week, the yellow metal retested its late-June lows at 1180, but bargain buyers stepped in to defend this previous support level. By Friday’s close, gold had bounced nearly $60 from the intraweek lows, creating a large Bullish Engulfing Candle on the 4hr chart. This candlestick pattern shows a large shift from selling to buying pressure and is often seen at near-term lows in the market.' }/ G1 e5 p! x6 ?+ A2 M
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Supporting the bullish candlestick pattern, the 14-period weekly RSI has created a bullish divergence over the last six months (the RSI put in a higher low while price put in a low at the same level). This shows that there was less conviction in Q4 drop and suggests that gold may be more likely to bounce from here.
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Though the weekly Engulfing Candle and RSI divergence point toward a possible rally, readers should keep the longer-term context in mind: gold remains trapped under the dominant bearish trend line from 2013, and until prices can break above that ceiling, any rallies could be short-lived. The key resistance level to watch over the next week or two will be 1278, where the near-term 38.2% Fibonacci extension and longer-term bearish trend line converge. If gold can break through that cap, a more substantial rally toward 1300 or 1338 (the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement) may come into play. Conversely, a drop through the critical 1180 floor would suggest that the bounce is complete and could open the door for more weakness as we move through Q1 2014.
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